Well the polls are tempting us again. And it seems so reasonable to believe them.
Gas prices are stubbornly stuck at well over $4.00 a gallon. Grocery costs continue to stun at the checkout line. Across the political spectrum, voters are saying they’re upset with the tariffs and the war, the immigration policies and failure to address the threats of artificial intelligence as the president profits from it. Mortgage rates and unemployment are both on the rise.
The latest New York Times and Siena surveys would suggest that this country has finally wised up to the truth: that this White House never cared about average Americans, and that the GOP-controlled Congress doesn’t have their backs either.
Those polls conclude that Democrats are now competitive in Senate races in five states that have consistently voted Republican. Experts are betting we’ll win the House by picking up anywhere from 5 to 17 seats, and there’s a clear path to taking the Senate too.
Well hold on.
Maybe they’re right, but a friend posted a wise reminder on social media about our fate in 2016 when we went to the voting booths so confident of the polls and so certain we’d wake up to the election of the first female U.S. president. “I don’t care if every single poll says Democrats are winning by a mile. That’s what they said about Hillary. Ignore the polls. Get out. Go to the polls. Vote.” Indeed.
In that election the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton an 85-90 percent chance of winning. Reuters/Ipsos weighed in with a 90 percent chance. And the Princeton Election Consortium’s calculation of a Clinton victory put it at 99 percent.
And here we are today navigating the damage from a second Trump term after voters apparently didn’t get the message about this president’s priorities and the pain of his agenda from the first.
We can’t bank on the polls. Think Charlie Brown. Lucy. Football.
How many times do we need to learn not to trust a prediction system that gives us so much reason to hope but is far less than scientific? They might be right…but our chances also might be much, much closer than they appear. So we need to pull out all the stopsto elect representatives to Washington, and state and local leaders who will uphold true Democratic values.
In Hancock County the push for our candidates has been impressive. So far we’ve knocked on more than 2,300 doors, written more than 8,000 postcards, talked to more than 1,300 voters by phone, produced hundreds of buttons, stickers and car magnets, and planted hundreds more campaign signs in our yards and along our roads. It is no time for over confidence or easing up. In these last weeks we’re multiplying our efforts.
Beginning the weekend of Oct. 17-18, the final get out the vote push starts. We’ll be staging canvassing every weekend from four locations: Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, and Deer Isle. Hundreds more signs are arriving this week to support our candidates but also with messages to remind voters that it’s Democrats who will champion their causes on affordability, healthcare, and other needs.
This newsletter will spotlight the many ways you can be involved, with links on where to sign up. We can do this. Do your part, even if it’s one small thing. Two more years of this presidency going unchecked would be catastrophic.
This is our last chance to get out the vote for what is likely the most important election of our lifetimes.
Join us!
Marcia Myers, HCDC Chair
